Agricultural productivity in developing countries and influence of climate change on agriculture

Abstract

Agricultural productivity is critical to the supply of food and fiber required to support good quality life, more so with increasing World population. In this regard, developing countries are at the risk of food scarcity. The primary objective of this paper was to evaluate the trend of agricultural productivity in Low Income (LI) and Lower Middle Income (LMI) countries in comparison with High Income (HI) countries. A secondary objective was the evaluation of the effect of climate change on agriculture in Nigeria. Metadata was collated on agricultural total factor productivity and per capita income from 1960 to 2000. The data was regrouped into class data of five years interval. The class data was analyzed using means, correlation and regression analysis. The High Income countries had a regular sigmoid curve for agricultural productivity. LMI countries had an undulating regression curve though with a short stable period. The curve for LI countries was unstable. In multiple regression, HI countries recorded a high regression coefficient of 0.97 compared with 0.06 and 0.35 in LMI and LI respectively. The intersection point, i.e. the constant was -0.83. This negative constant supports previous reports on World food crises. The options of cross sectorial policy formulation/implementation, North-South and South-South Cooperation were suggested to ensure that the entire World system works in unison to respond positively to the challenges of food and nutrition security. This is moreso as agriculture in developing countries is mainly nature dependent, hence vulnerable to the effect of climate change. In this regard, the effect of climate change on agriculture in Nigeria was studied, with a situation report and recommendations. © 2024 The Author(s)